This year's Giro D'Italia seems set to remain a thriller from start to finish simply because the course is such an enigma. Grand Tours usually tend to follow a certain formula; a week of flats, some mountains, a recovery, some more mountains, and more often than not, a TT right before a processional finish around a beautiful European city. This year's Tour of Italy is totally different, and it's only as we approach its halfway mark am I beggining to understand it.
Danilo DiLuca and Denis Menchov, however, seem to have figured it out long ago. This year's Giro is all about aggresive riding day in and day out, and DiLuca's run in the pink jersey is a reflection of that. Denis' Menchov crushed the Cinque Terra TT today, but his big lead over many of the other favorites is because he's been grabbing time here and there all week. His stage win in the mountains got him a 20 second time bonus. DiLuca has almost a minute of his GC classification time due to time bonuses, because he's been grabbing wins and podiums every chance he gets.
And that's the key really. Since the race really lacks the huge selective mountain stages where climbers can put 3-4 minutes on rivals over 15k of climbing you have to play things differently.
Don't even begin to think that this thing is settled though. Coming up we've got four more mountain top finishes in the less well known southern Italian mountains. None of them look set to be high alpine style climbs though, but are instead explosive leg killers, the kind of thing DiLuca lives for, as long as he's got anything left after his flamboyant riding through the first half of the race.
Two of the climbs stand out; the Blockhaus stage, a crazy short 83km day that climbs from start to finish, and the summit finish atop Mt. Vesuvius outside of Naples. But while both of these climbs promise some serious fireworks, its going to take something very special for the likes of Sastre or Basso to overcome their current defecit to the leaders. Menchov and Leipheimer are no slouches on the climbs, and no matter how well the mountain goats do going up, there is one last TT between a rider and winning the Giro D'Italia.
The final day in Rome is one for the specialists. I'd put money on Levi to at least get a stage win out of it, and depending on how he reacts to the attacks on the previous week's vicious mountains he may be able to ride into a pink jersey.
Predictions? I think Basso is out. He hasn't shown that special punch on the climbs, and he can't hold a candle to Levi in the TT. The way Liquigas has been riding on the front you'd think they've almost convinced themselves they're leading, but I don't think they look set to make it happen this year. I think Di Luca has a real shot, even after losing the jersey today. If he can maintain his form for the duration then the upcoming summit finishes look tailor-made for him. However, I still think the race win will go to Levi or Menchov. They're both too strong and too smart to let DiLuca blow them apart in the next week, and you know they're both going to crush him on the fast TT in Rome. Whoever wins, with a course that only the Italians could come up with, It should be exciting all the way to the end.
